Tsunamis, nuclear disasters and more...

Been an interesting week. Things were winding down last friday afternoon, when we had a call from South Africa, one of our cow-orkers was watching the live news there and seeing the videos of the tsunami hitting Japan. So we logged into the live feed from Al Jazeera and watched in horror and fascination as things unfolded.

Since I live right on the beach, the possibilty of a tsunami is always something at the back of my mind. A year ago after the Chile quake, the beach was closed in anticipation, but only minor tidal surges were recorded on the Australia coast. Tsunamis are an interesting wave propagation problem and one can never be sure what will happen, though real time models can predict the results once sufficient data from ocean buoys is available. We were on tsunami alert in the meantime.

I got home and packed a few treasured items: photos, antiques and other memorambilia. The propagation time maps were already available - indicating the earliest time of arrival - which would be around 2 am. Then I headed up to Johns place (high up on a hill) to watch the ongoing development. After a few hours (and several glasses of wine) it became clear that the main energy of the tsunami was being directed outwards across the pacific, and not south towards us, so it was safe to go home.

The eventual arrival of tsunami waves in the USA (where a number of rubberneckers were washed away) and in Peru, where beachfront houses were hit - should be a wakeup call for those who take such events lightly. Peru is twice the distance from the epicenter as we are, yet they were hit by substantial surges. The propagation energy maps are fascinating in their own right - all sorts of diffraction patterns and shadows. It would be interesting to see such maps for potential events in other parts of the pacific - and get an idea of where a major event would be likely to impact Australia. Historical evidence indicates three major tsunamis have hit the east coast here over the last thousand or so years. Not exactly a likely situation, but still enough to indicate that in the event of a major earthquake you should at least take minimal precautions and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.

Well subsequent to the main disaster of earthquake and tsunami, things are only getting worse, with a major man-made catastrophe unfolding.

More later